(Q66)
Statements
Global surface temperature was around 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020 (1.09°C [0.95°C– 1.20°C]), with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83]°C) than over the ocean (0.88°C [0.68°C– 1.01°C]). Observed warming is human-caused, with warming from greenhouse gases (GHG), dominated by CO2 and methane (CH4), partly masked by aerosol cooling (Figure 2.1). Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99 [0.84 to 1.10]°C higher than 1850-1900. Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years (English)
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The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C. It is likely that well-mixed GHGs contributed a warming of 1.0°C–2.0°C, and other human drivers (principally aerosols) contributed a cooling of 0.0°C–0.8°C, natural (solar and volcanic) drivers changed global surface temperature by ±0.1°C and internal variability changed it by ±0.2°C. (English)
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